R&D Nester publish article in IEEE Power & Energy Magazine
R&D NESTER participated in the production of the article entitled "The Use of Probabilistic Forecasts- Applying Them in Theory and Practice", published in the November/December 2019 issue of IEEE Power & Energy Magazine.
This article addresses the advantages of probabilistic prediction in relation to traditional deterministic prediction. This 12-page article has eleven co-authors and was led by meteorology expert Sue Ellen Haupt, from U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), with the collaboration of TSO/ISO (REE, ERCOT, CAISO) companies of market operators (AEMO), SPP), research and development operators (Fraunhofer IEE, Energy & Meteo Systems, WEPROG, UL-AWS Truepower and R&D NESTER), from various geographies (North America, Europe and Australia).
The article starts by indicating the four existing methodologies to generate probabilistic predictions: 1) statistical methods of probabilistic forecasts, 2) statistically based scenarios, 3) physically based ensemble forecasts, 4) perturbation-based ensemble forecasts.
Describing several examples of application by end users:
• Using Probabilistic Information as Input for Grid Security Calculations: A German Example,
• Using Probabilistic Information to Fine-Tune Unit Commitment: A Lesson From the U.S. SPP,
• Capturing Extreme Conditions: A Lesson From the Electric Reliability Council of Texas,
• Use of Probabilistic Forecasting for Extreme Events, Such as High-Speed Shutdown Risk Assessment: An Irish Case,
• Use of Probabilistic Forecasts by the TSO: A Spanish Case.